ArcticNet - ArcticNet Research

Phase 4 (2015-2018)

Providing Climate Scenarios for the Canadian Arctic with Improved Post-Processing Methods

Project Leader(s)

Mailhot, Alain

Planning and adapting to a warming Arctic require the best information on potential climate change over the next several decades. This information is typically obtained from physically-based models of the Earth climate system which simulate its response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. While climate scientists have high confidence in the projected global-average range of warming, there is greater uncertainty in regional and local changes relevant for decision-makers, particularly in the Arctic region. Climate simulations must therefore be post-processed to obtain statistical properties similar to those of observed time series. The objective of this project is to provide Canadian Arctic decision-makers and communities with scenarios for temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other climatic variables and indicators. The state-of-the-art post-processing methods employed are aimed at correctly representing extreme weather events and take into account observational uncertainties as well as inter-variable correlations. Wind scenarios, a major development of this project, are used notably for assessing climate change impacts on sea ice regimes and coastal erosion. Contributes to IRIS: 1, 2, 3, 4